The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill [Wired, May 2021]

Title:

The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill

 

Author:

Megan Molteni

 

Published:

Wired, 13 May 2021

https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

 

From the article:

All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.

 

Coronavirus: Why aren’t death rates rising with case numbers? Your chances of dying with Covid-19 depend primarily on age

Title:
Coronavirus: Why aren’t death rates rising with case numbers?

Author:
Danny Dorling

Published:
Moneyweb, 13 September 2020
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/coronavirus-why-arent-death-rates-rising-with-case-numbers/

From the article:
It is a conundrum. For much of the past two months, many people have been convinced that mortality associated with Covid-19 would rise as the number of people testing positive with the disease increased. But this has not happened so far. Why? A look at government data from England and Wales can provide some clues.

Florida Atlantic University - Face shields, masks with valves ineffective against COVID-19 spread: study

Title:
Face shields, masks with valves ineffective against COVID-19 spread: study

Source:
Florida Atlantic University

Published:
Phys.org, 1 September 2020
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-shields-masks-valves-ineffective-covid-.html

From the article:
To increase public awareness about the effectiveness of face shields alone as well as face masks with exhalation valves, researchers from Florida Atlantic University's College of Engineering and Computer Science used qualitative visualizations to test how face shields and masks with valves perform in impeding the spread of aerosol-sized droplets. Widespread public use of these alternatives to regular masks could potentially have an adverse effect on mitigation efforts.

medRxiv, 24 July 2020 (preprint) - Effective Contact Tracing for COVID-19: A Systematic Review

Title:
Effective Contact Tracing for COVID-19: A Systematic Review

Authors:
Carl-Etienne Juneau, Anne-Sara Briand, Tomas Pueyo, Pablo Collazzo & Louise Potvin

Published:
medRxiv, 24 July 2020
[Keep in mind that this article is a preprint and not yet peer reviewed]
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160234v1

Abstract:
Background:
Contact tracing is commonly recommended to control outbreaks of COVID-19, but its effectiveness is unclear. This systematic review aimed to examine contact tracing effectiveness in the context of COVID-19.

Methods:
Following PRISMA guidelines, MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, and All EBM Reviews were searched using a range of terms related to contact tracing for COVID-19. Articles were included if they reported on the ability of contact tracing to slow or stop the spread of COVID-19 or on characteristics of effective tracing efforts. Two investigators screened all studies.

Results:
A total of 33 articles were found. All were observational or modelling studies, so the quality of the evidence was low. Overall, 15 out of 15 observational studies (100%) and 16 out of 18 (89%) modelling studies reported that contact tracing (alone or in combination with other interventions) was associated with better control of COVID-19. Under assumptions of prompt and thorough tracing with no further transmission, modelling studies found that contact tracing could stop an outbreak (e.g. by reducing the reproduction number from 2.2 to 0.57) or reduce infections (e.g. by 24%-71% with a mobile tracing app). Under assumptions of slower, less efficient tracing, modelling studies suggested that tracing could slow, but not stop COVID-19.

Conclusions:
Observational and modelling studies suggest that contact tracing is associated with better control of COVID-19. Its effectiveness likely depends on a number of factors, including how many and how fast contacts are traced and quarantined, and how effective quarantines are at preventing further transmission. A cautious interpretation suggests that to stop the spread of COVID-19, public health practitioners have 2-3 days from the time a new case develops symptoms to isolate the case and quarantine at least 80% of its contacts, and that once isolated, cases and contacts should infect zero new cases. Less efficient tracing may slow, but not stop, the spread of COVID-19. Inefficient tracing (with delays of 4-5+ days or less than 60% of contacts quarantined without further transmission) may not contribute meaningfully to control of COVID-19.

A Scholarly Article (Lancet, 1 June 2020) described as "poor quality research" - Physical Distancing, Face Masks, and Eye Protection to Prevent Person-To-Person Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

A: SCHOLARLY ARTICLE

Title:
Physical Distancing, Face Masks, and Eye Protection to Prevent Person-To-Person Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Author:
Derek K Chu, Elie A Akl, Stephanie Duda, Karla Solo, Sally Yaacoub, Holger J Schünemann & COVID-19 Systematic Urgent Review Group Effort (SURGE) study authors

Published:
Lancet, 1 June 2020
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32497510/

Abstract:
Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes COVID-19 and is spread person-to-person through close contact. We aimed to investigate the effects of physical distance, face masks, and eye protection on virus transmission in health-care and non-health-care (eg, community) settings.

Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the optimum distance for avoiding person-to-person virus transmission and to assess the use of face masks and eye protection to prevent transmission of viruses. We obtained data for SARS-CoV-2 and the betacoronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome, and Middle East respiratory syndrome from 21 standard WHO-specific and COVID-19-specific sources. We searched these data sources from database inception to May 3, 2020, with no restriction by language, for comparative studies and for contextual factors of acceptability, feasibility, resource use, and equity. We screened records, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias in duplicate. We did frequentist and Bayesian meta-analyses and random-effects meta-regressions. We rated the certainty of evidence according to Cochrane methods and the GRADE approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020177047.

Findings: Our search identified 172 observational studies across 16 countries and six continents, with no randomised controlled trials and 44 relevant comparative studies in health-care and non-health-care settings (n=25 697 patients). Transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of 1 m or more, compared with a distance of less than 1 m (n=10 736, pooled adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·18, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·38; risk difference [RD] -10·2%, 95% CI -11·5 to -7·5; moderate certainty); protection was increased as distance was lengthened (change in relative risk [RR] 2·02 per m; pinteraction=0·041; moderate certainty). Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection (n=2647; aOR 0·15, 95% CI 0·07 to 0·34, RD -14·3%, -15·9 to -10·7; low certainty), with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable 12-16-layer cotton masks; pinteraction=0·090; posterior probability >95%, low certainty). Eye protection also was associated with less infection (n=3713; aOR 0·22, 95% CI 0·12 to 0·39, RD -10·6%, 95% CI -12·5 to -7·7; low certainty). Unadjusted studies and subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed similar findings.

Interpretation: The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis support physical distancing of 1 m or more and provide quantitative estimates for models and contact tracing to inform policy. Optimum use of face masks, respirators, and eye protection in public and health-care settings should be informed by these findings and contextual factors. Robust randomised trials are needed to better inform the evidence for these interventions, but this systematic appraisal of currently best available evidence might inform interim guidance.


B: ASSESSING DISTANCE MEASURES REPORTED IN ABOVE-MENTIONED ARTICLE

Title:
COVID-19 Evidence is lacking for 2 meter distancing

Authors:
Carl Heneghan & Tom Jefferson

Published:
CEBM, 19 June 2020
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-evidence-is-lacking-for-2-meter-distancing/

From the article:
In assessing the distance measures reported in Figure 2 of this review we analysed the SARs and COVID-19 studies and found we could not replicate the results reported in the review for 13 out of the 15 papers. 

We reported some of these issues in the Telegraph.  There is no scientific evidence to support the disastrous two-metre rule. Poor quality research is being used to justify a policy with enormous consequences for us all (Access here).

medRxiv, 8 June 2020 - The Current COVID-19 Spread Pattern in India

Title:
The Current COVID-19 Spread Pattern in India

Author:
Hemanta Kumar Baruach

Published:
medRxiv, 8 June 2020
[Keep in mind that this article is a preprint and not yet peer reviewed.]
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.03.20121210v1

Abstract:
In this article, we are going to show how to find out short term forecasts of the total number of COVID-19 cases in India in an easy way. Initially the spread of the disease was observably slow in India. Since the first week of May a highly nonlinear pattern has started to take shape. It can be observed that currently in India the spread pattern is nearly exponential. It can be seen further that the number of cases is still continuing to grow very fast. Therefore, instead of going for rigorous time series analysis, we may opt for looking at the data from a recent date downwards, and short term forecasts based on simple numerical analytical methods can be made accordingly.

Medical Xpress, 26 May 2020 - Evidence shows cloth masks may help against COVID-19

Title:
Evidence shows cloth masks may help against COVID-19

Published:
Medical Xpress, 26 May 2020
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-evidence-masks-covid-.html

From the article:
"The evidence shows that cloth masks, particularly those with several layers of cotton cloth, block droplet and aerosol contamination of the environment, which may reduce transmission of COVID-19."

Scholarly Article (Lancet, 14 May 2020) - Global coordination on cross-border travel and trade measures crucial to COVID-19 response

Title:
Global coordination on cross-border travel and trade measures crucial to COVID-19 response

Authors:
Kelley Lee, Catherine Z Worsnop, Karen A Grépin & Adam Kamradt-Scott

Published:
Lancet, 14 May 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31032-1/fulltext

From the article:
"The universal adoption of cross-border measures raises fundamental questions about what coordination means during a pandemic, and what role WHO has in facilitating this. Coordinated action among states in an interconnected world underpins effective prevention, detection, and control of disease outbreaks across countries."

Science, 19 May 2020 - Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?

Title:
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?

Author:
Kai Kupferschmidt

Published:
Science, 19 May 2020
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

From the article:
"When 61 people met for a choir practice in a church in Mount Vernon, Washington, on 10 March, everything seemed normal. For 2.5 hours the chorists sang, snacked on cookies and oranges, and sang some more. But one of them had been suffering for 3 days from what felt like a cold—and turned out to be COVID-19. In the following weeks, 53 choir members got sick, three were hospitalized, and two died, according to a 12 May report by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that meticulously reconstructed the tragedy.  

Many similar “superspreading events” have occurred in the COVID-19 pandemic."

University of Pretoria (UP), South Africa - UP researchers find correlation between lower temperatures and spread of COVID-19

Title:
UP researchers find correlation between lower temperatures and spread of COVID-19

Published:
University of Pretoria (UP) News, 8 May 2020

From the article:
"A data analysis conducted by four University of Pretoria (UP) academics has found a correlation between lower temperatures and the faster spread of the COVID-19 virus.   

The analysis, conducted by academics from UP’s Department of Economics, Dr Carolyn Chisadza, Dr Matthew Clance, Dr Nicky Nicholls and Dr Eleni Yitbarek, used data from around the world to assess whether lower temperatures have played a role in the spread of the virus."

To read this article:
https://www.up.ac.za/news/post_2894042-up-researchers-find-correlation-between-lower-temperatures-and-spread-of-covid-19

Scholarly Article (2020) - Applying principles of behaviour change to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Title:
Applying principles of behaviour change to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Authors:
Robert West, Susan Michie, G. James Rubin & Richard Amlôt 

Published:
Nature Human Behaviour, 2020

Available:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0887-9

Abstract:
Human behaviour is central to transmission of SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and changing behaviour is crucial to preventing transmission in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. Isolation and social distancing measures, including edicts to stay at home, have been brought into place across the globe to reduce transmission of the virus, but at a huge cost to individuals and society. In addition to these measures, we urgently need effective interventions to increase adherence to behaviours that individuals in communities can enact to protect themselves and others: use of tissues to catch expelled droplets from coughs or sneezes, use of face masks as appropriate, hand-washing on all occasions when required, disinfecting objects and surfaces, physical distancing, and not touching one’s eyes, nose or mouth. There is an urgent need for direct evidence to inform development of such interventions, but it is possible to make a start by applying behavioural science methods and models.

University of Stirling [Science Daily, 6 May 2020] - Sewage poses potential COVID-19 transmission risk, experts warn

Title:
Sewage poses potential COVID-19 transmission risk, experts warn

Source:
University of Stirling 

Published:
Science Daily, 6 May 2020

Summary:
"Environmental biologists have warned that the potential spread of COVID-19 via sewage 'must not be neglected' in the battle to protect human health."

To read this article:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200506133603.htm

Scholarly Article [medRxiv, 30 March 2020] - Children are unlikely to have been the primary source of household SARS-CoV-2 infections

Title:
Children are unlikely to have been the primary source of household SARS-CoV-2 infections

Authors:
Yanshan Zhu, Conor J Bloxham, Katina D Hulme, Jane E Sinclair, Zhen Wei Marcus Tong, Lauren E Steele, Ellesandra C Noye, Jiahai Lu, Keng Yih Chew, Janessa Pickering, Charles Gilks, Asha C Bowen & Kirsty R Short

Published:
medRxiv, 30 March 2020 
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044826v1
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed.

From the abstract:
"Since its identification on the 7th of January 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has spread to more than 180 countries worldwide, causing >11,000 deaths. At present, viral disease and transmission amongst children is incompletely understood. Specifically, there is concern that children could be an important source of SARS-CoV-2 in household transmission clusters."

Scholarly Article (Science, 1 May 2020) - Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Title:
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Authors:
Ruiyun Li1, Sen Pei, Bin Chen, Yimeng Song, Tao Zhang, Wan Yang & Jeffrey Shaman

Published:
Science, 1 May 2020
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/489

Abstract:
"Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82–90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46–62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging."

Scholarly Article (24 April 2020) - The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Title:
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Authors:
Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Marco Ajelli, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Kunpeng Mu, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Cécile Viboud, Xinyue Xiong, Hongjie Yu, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr., & Alessandro Vespignani

Published:
Science, Volume 368, Issue 6489, pp. 395-400 (24 April 2020)
Available: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/395

From the abstract:
"Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February."

Short Article (The Conversation, 23 April 2020) - Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so

Title:
Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so

Author:
Paul W. Franks

Published:
The Conversation, 23 April 2020

From the article:
"Many countries around the world are now facing the difficult decision of when and how to ease lockdown restrictions due to the novel coronavirus. In the absence of a vaccine, it is likely there will be new waves of the epidemic, unless enough people have been infected to achieve herd immunity (assuming those who have contracted the virus retain enough protection and the virus does not mutate into a distinct strain) – estimated to be around 60%.  

Unfortunately, government advisers in the UK, France and many other countries suggest only a few percent of the population have so far been infected. But does this add up?" 

To read this articel:
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-are-we-underestimating-how-many-people-have-had-it-sweden-thinks-so-136893

Scholarly Article (The New England Journal of Medicine, 24 April 2020) - Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility

Title:
Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility

Authors:
Melissa M. Arons, R.N., Kelly M. Hatfield, M.S.P.H., Sujan C. Reddy, M.D., Anne Kimball, M.D., Allison James, Ph.D., Jesica R. Jacobs, Ph.D., Joanne Taylor, Ph.D., Kevin Spicer, M.D., Ana C. Bardossy, M.D., Lisa P. Oakley, Ph.D., Sukarma Tanwar, M.Med., Jonathan W. Dyal, M.D., et al., for the Public Health–Seattle and King County and CDC COVID-19 Investigation Team

Published:
The New England Journal of Medicine, 24 April 2020
Available: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008457?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

From the abstract:
"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can spread rapidly within skilled nursing facilities. After identification of a case of Covid-19 in a skilled nursing facility, we assessed transmission and evaluated the adequacy of symptom-based screening to identify infections in residents."