A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality [Scholarly Article - Studies in Applied Economics, January 2022]

Title:

A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality  

 

Authors: 

Jonas Herby, Centre for Political Studies, Copenhagen, Denmark 

Lars Jonung, Lund University, Sweden 

&  

Steve H. Hanke, The John Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, USA  

 

Published: 

Studies in Applied Economics, January 2022 

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf  

 

Abstract: 

This systematic review and meta-analysis are designed to determine whether there is empirical evidence to support the belief that “lockdowns” reduce COVID-19 mortality. Lockdowns are defined as the imposition of at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI). NPIs are any government mandate that directly restrict peoples’ possibilities, such as policies that limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, and ban international travel. This study employed a systematic search and screening procedure in which 18,590 studies are identified that could potentially address the belief posed. After three levels of screening, 34 studies ultimately qualified. Of those 34 eligible studies, 24 qualified for inclusion in the meta-analysis. They were separated into three groups: lockdown stringency index studies, shelter-in-place-order (SIPO) studies, and specific NPI studies. An analysis of each of these three groups support the conclusion that lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average. SIPOs were also ineffective, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average. Specific NPI studies also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality. While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.

 

UNDP Report (Jun 2021) - How Young Entrepreneurs in Asia-Pacific Responded to COVID-19

Title of report:

How Young Entrepreneurs in Asia-Pacific Responded to COVID-19

 

Published:

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2 June 2021

https://www.undp.org/publications/how-young-entrepreneurs-asia-pacific-responded-covid-19

 

From the description:

One year on from the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic, Youth Co:Lab – co-led by UNDP and Citi Foundation – conducted research to assess how youth-led enterprises in Asia-Pacific were impacted by the first year of the pandemic and how they responded.  

 

The results, presented in this report, reveal how 92 percent of businesses surveyed were negatively impacted by the shock waves of the crisis: from lockdowns and collapsing demand, to broken supply chains and a credit crunch.

 

Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa at the Onset of the COVID‐19 Pandemic [Scholarly Article by Vimal Ranchhod & Reza Che Daniels]

Title:

Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa at the Onset of the COVID‐19 Pandemic

 

Authors:

Vimal Ranchhod & Reza Che Daniels

Published:

South African Journal of Economics (SAJE), 5 February 2021

[Open access article]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/saje.12283

 

Abstract:

This paper conducts an analysis of labour market dynamics in South Africa during the initial period of lockdown, from the end of March to the end of April 2020, using the first wave of the NIDS‐CRAM (2020) survey. Within our sample of over 6,000 adults aged 18 to 59, we found that there was a very large decrease in employment. The fraction of the sample that was conventionally classified as employed decreased from 57% in February to 48% in April. If we further exclude temporarily absent workers, which we term “furloughed” employees, this fraction decreases further to 38%. Thus, about one out of every three employed people in our sample either lost their job or did not work and received no wages during April. This has extremely large implications for poverty and welfare. We further analyse the labour market by comparing across demographic groups as defined by race, by gender, by age groups, by geographic areas and by education levels. The over‐arching finding from this analysis is that the job losses were not uniformly distributed amongst the different groups. In particular, groups who have always been more vulnerable – such as women, African/Blacks, youth and less educated groups – have been disproportionately negatively affected.

 

Do Lockdowns Work? The Literature (scholarly articles)

Title:

Do lockdowns work? The literature

 

Published:

InProportion2, 15 January 2021

https://inproportion2.talkigy.com/do_lockdowns_work_2021-01-15.html

 

From this post:

Below are a number of published papers finding that lockdowns had little or no efficacy (despite unconscionable harms) along with a key quote or two from each.

Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China [Nature Communications, 20 November 2020]

Title:

Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China

 

Authors:

Shiyi Cao, Yong Gan, Chao Wang [et al.]

 

Published:

Nature Communications, 20 November 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

 

Abstract:

Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.

Death by lockdown by Jeffrey A Tucker (AIER, 2 November 2020)

Title:

Death by lockdown

Author:

Jeffrey A. Tucker

Published:

American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), 2 November 2020

https://www.aier.org/article/death-by-lockdown/

 

From the article:

On March 28 – very early in the pandemic – AIER published an article that I felt at the time received far too little attention. “Drugs, Suicide, and Crime: Empirical Estimates of the Human Toll of the Shutdown” by economists Audrey and Thomas Duncan cited empirical literature on the human toll of economic devastation.   

 

This article forecasted more than 100,000 excess deaths due to drug overdoses, suicide, alcoholism, homicide, and untreated depression – all a result not of the virus but of policies of mandatory human separation, economic downturn, business and school closures, closed medical services, and general depression that comes with a loss of freedom and choice.

South Africa - Revealed: what doctors advised Mkhize about taxis, the lockdown and schools - the government was, at best, sometimes painstakingly slow at listening to its experts

Title:
Revealed: what doctors advised Mkhize about taxis, the lockdown and schools

Author:
Katharine Child

Published:
Financial Mail, 28 August 2020
https://www.businesslive.co.za/amp/fm/features/2020-08-28-revealed-what-doctors-advised-mkhize-about-taxis-the-lockdown-and-schools/

From the article:
The government’s lethargy in taking the doctors’ advice on the lockdown restrictions looks even worse if one considers that so little of the promised R500bn economic stimulus package has been delivered. For example, a key part of the stimulus is a R200bn loan guarantee scheme. But even though it was designed to help an estimated 700,000 businesses, only 10,000 companies had been granted these loans by the beginning of August. And the Temporary Employment Relief Scheme, meant to make up any shortfall in salaries due to Covid-19, was suspended due to fears of fraud.

Scholarly Article (2020) - Applying principles of behaviour change to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Title:
Applying principles of behaviour change to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Authors:
Robert West, Susan Michie, G. James Rubin & Richard Amlôt 

Published:
Nature Human Behaviour, 2020

Available:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0887-9

Abstract:
Human behaviour is central to transmission of SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and changing behaviour is crucial to preventing transmission in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. Isolation and social distancing measures, including edicts to stay at home, have been brought into place across the globe to reduce transmission of the virus, but at a huge cost to individuals and society. In addition to these measures, we urgently need effective interventions to increase adherence to behaviours that individuals in communities can enact to protect themselves and others: use of tissues to catch expelled droplets from coughs or sneezes, use of face masks as appropriate, hand-washing on all occasions when required, disinfecting objects and surfaces, physical distancing, and not touching one’s eyes, nose or mouth. There is an urgent need for direct evidence to inform development of such interventions, but it is possible to make a start by applying behavioural science methods and models.

Sky News Australia video (0:32) - Cyber abuse up by 50 percent amid COVID-19 restrictions

Title of video:
Cyber abuse up by 50 percent amid COVID-19 restrictions

Published:
Sky News Australia, 11 April 2020

Content:
Reports of cyber abuse have skyrocketed by 50 percent since social distancing measures were enforced.

To watch this video (0:32):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CXoUETjjrA&feature=youtu.be