Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Three Models [Preprint - medRxiv, 10 December 2020]

Title:

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Three Models 

 

Authors:

Vincent Chin, John P.A. Ioannidis, Martin A. Tanner, Sally Cripps

Published:

medRxiv, 10 December 2020

[This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed.]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3

Abstract:

Objective To compare the inference regarding the effectiveness of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 obtained from different SIR models.  

 

Study design and setting We explored two models developed by Imperial College that considered only NPIs without accounting for mobility (model 1) or only mobility (model 2), and a model accounting for the combination of mobility and NPIs (model 3). Imperial College applied models 1 and 2 to 11 European countries and to the USA, respectively. We applied these models to 14 European countries (original 11 plus another 3), over two different time horizons.  

 

Results While model 1 found that lockdown was the most effective measure in the original 11 countries, model 2 showed that lockdown had little or no benefit as it was typically introduced at a point when the time-varying reproductive number was already very low. Model 3 found that the simple banning of public events was beneficial, while lockdown had no consistent impact. Based on Bayesian metrics, model 2 was better supported by the data than either model 1 or model 3 for both time horizons. 

 

Conclusions Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.

COVID-19: how lockdowns affected health access in African and Asian slums

Title:

COVID-19: how lockdowns affected health access in African and Asian slums

 

Authors:

Funke Fayehun, University of Ibadan

Bronwyn Harris, University of Warwick

Frances Griffiths, University of Warwick & South Africa Research Chair in Health Policy and Systems, University of the Witwatersrand

Narjis Rizvi, Aga Khan University

Pauline Bakibinga, African Population and Health Research Center

Syed AK Shifat Ahmed, University Bangladesh

Published:

The Conversation, 22 October 2020

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-how-lockdowns-affected-health-access-in-african-and-asian-slums-147600

From the article:

In a recent study, we explored healthcare and access to services in seven slums in Kenya, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. We were looking for insights of how health services are perceived in these communities before and during COVID-19-related lockdowns.

SOUTH AFRICA - Lockdown didn't work in South Africa: why it shouldn't happen again

Title:

Lockdown didn't work in South Africa: why it shouldn't happen again

 

Authors:

Benjamin T H Smart, University of Johannesburg

Ale broadbent, University of Johannesburg

Herkulaas MvE Combrink, University of the Free State

Published:

The Conversation, 15 October 2020

https://theconversation.com/lockdown-didnt-work-in-south-africa-why-it-shouldnt-happen-again-147682

From the article:

At the start of October, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Chinese government lauded South Africa’s response to the global COVID-19 pandemic. Yet data concerning both the spread of the virus and the indirect consequences of the lockdown suggest that the severe restrictions imposed in South Africa – some of the strictest in the world – were far from effective.  

 

We recently reviewed the evidence for the effectiveness of the lockdown at slowing the spread of the pandemic.

South Africa - The definitive presentation why and how LOCKDOWN is more deadly than COVID in South Africa [Duration: 1:51:8] - Excellent presentation (well-presented & evidence-based) - Hosted by Morning Shot, 2 September 2020

Morning Shot video title:
The Definitive Lockdown Presentation Livestream

Full title of presentation:
The definitive presentation why and how LOCKDOWN is more deadly than COVID in South Africa

Presenters:
Piet le Roux, B4EL
Nick Hudson, SANA Partners & PANDA
Russell Lamberti, ETM Macro Advisors & PANDA
Hans Zachar, Emerging Markets: TransUnion Africa

Hosted by:
Morning Shot, 2 September 2020
[Note: Webinar starts at 10:00 into this video]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kYznMj4_ZA

Duration of Webinar:
1:51:8

Video description:
Business for Ending Lockdown (B4EL) invites the media, business representatives, policy makers, and the public to the launch of the presentation, via complimentary Livestream.

See also this article:
Business groups launch new petition against South Africa's lockdown - here's what they are calling for [Business Tech, 13 August 2020]

From the above-mentioned article:
The group has called on the government to:
* End the lockdown immediately;
* Lift the state of disaster;
* Allow people and organisations to manage their unique risks by converting all Covid-19 regulations into non-compulsory recommendations.

Once in a lifetime? What will change after the coronavirus - new ebook by Reuters Breakingviews (pdf format), 2 June 2020

Title:
Once in a lifetime? What will change after the coronavirus

By:
Reuters Breakingviews

Access (pdf):
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/oakveqezbvr/Once%20in%20a%20Lifetime%20E-book.pdf

From the Preface by Rob Cox:
"The 44 commentaries in “Once in a Lifetime” explore how trends like reduced travel, less socialising and working from home will affect companies, workers, asset prices and investors even after economies reopen. The views identify some winners and losers in the healthcare, entertainment, energy and automotive spaces. And they look at the longer-term effects of the pandemic on globalisation, emerging markets and the drive for greater sustainability to fight climate change."

South Africa (News24, 19 May 2020) - Civil disobedience and government’s crisis of legitimacy

Title:
Civil disobedience and government’s crisis of legitimacy

Author:
Mandy Wiener

Published:
News24, 19 May 2020
https://www.news24.com/Columnists/Mandy_Wiener/mandy-wiener-civil-disobedience-and-governments-crisis-of-legitimacy-20200519-2

From the article:
"As we find ourselves on Day 54 of lockdown in South Africa, doubt has set in amongst those who are questioning the logic and rationality of our government’s approach to the coronavirus pandemic. 

With that comes disregard for the laws imposed under the State of Disaster.

Arguments for and against lockdown have become increasingly polarised, politicised and emotive."

Short Article (The Conversation, 23 April 2020) - Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so

Title:
Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so

Author:
Paul W. Franks

Published:
The Conversation, 23 April 2020

From the article:
"Many countries around the world are now facing the difficult decision of when and how to ease lockdown restrictions due to the novel coronavirus. In the absence of a vaccine, it is likely there will be new waves of the epidemic, unless enough people have been infected to achieve herd immunity (assuming those who have contracted the virus retain enough protection and the virus does not mutate into a distinct strain) – estimated to be around 60%.  

Unfortunately, government advisers in the UK, France and many other countries suggest only a few percent of the population have so far been infected. But does this add up?" 

To read this articel:
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-are-we-underestimating-how-many-people-have-had-it-sweden-thinks-so-136893