Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination [Scholarly Article - ResearchGate, January 2022]

Title: 

Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination  

 

Authors: 

Martin Neil, Queen Mary, University of London 

& 

Norman Elliott Fenton, Queen Mary, University of London  

 

Published: 

ResearchGate, January 2022 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination  

 

Abstract: 

The risk/benefit of Covid vaccines is arguably most accurately measured by comparing the all-cause mortality rate of vaccinated against unvaccinated, since it not only avoids most confounders relating to case definition but also fulfils the WHO/CDC definition of "vaccine effectiveness" for mortality. We examine two of the most recent UK ONS vaccine mortality surveillance reports, which provide the necessary information to monitor this crucial comparison over time. At first glance the ONS data suggest that, in each of the older age groups, all-cause mortality is lower in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. This conclusion is cast into doubt upon closer inspection of the data due to a range of fundamental inconsistencies and anomalies in the data. Whatever the explanations for these are, it is clear that the data is both unreliable and misleading. It has been suggested that the anomalies are the result of healthy vaccinee selection bias and population differences. However, we show why the most likely explanations for the observed anomalies are a combination of systemic miscategorisation of deaths between the different categories of unvaccinated and vaccinated; delayed or non-reporting of vaccinations; systemic underestimation of the proportion of unvaccinated; and/or incorrect population selection for Covid deaths. We also find no evidence that socio-demographic or behavioural differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated can explain these anomalies.

 

Transmission potential of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a federal prison, July—August 2021 [Preprint - medRxiv, November 2021]

Title:

Transmission potential of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a federal prison, July—August 2021 

 

Authors:

Phillip P. Salvatore, Christine C. Lee, Sadia Sleweon, David W. McCormick, Lavinia Nicolae, Kristen Knipe, Thomas Dixon, Robert Banta, Isaac Ogle, Cristen Young, Charles Dusseau, Shawn Salmonson, Charles Ogden, Eric Godwin, TeCora Ballom, Tara Ross, Nhien Tran Wynn, Ebenezer David, Theresa K. Bessey, Gimin Kim, Suganthi Suppiah, Azaibi Tamin, Jennifer L. Harcourt, Mili Sheth, Luis Lowe, Hannah Browne, Jacqueline E. Tate, Hannah L. Kirking & Liesl M. Hagan

 

Published:

medRxiv, 19 November 2021

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v1

[This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed.]

 

Abstract:

Background 

The extent to which vaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 contribute to transmission is unclear. During a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak among incarcerated persons with high vaccination rates in a federal prison, we assessed markers of viral shedding in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons.  

 

Methods 

Consenting incarcerated persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection provided mid-turbinate nasal specimens daily for 10 consecutive days and reported symptom data via questionnaire. Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), viral whole genome sequencing, and viral culture was performed on these nasal specimens. Duration of RT-PCR positivity and viral culture positivity was assessed using survival analysis.  

 

Results 

A total of 978 specimens were provided by 95 participants, of whom 78 (82%) were fully vaccinated and 17 (18%) were not fully vaccinated. No significant differences were detected in duration of RT-PCR positivity among fully vaccinated participants (median: 13 days) versus those not fully vaccinated (median: 13 days; p=0.50), or in duration of culture positivity (medians: 5 days and 5 days; p=0.29). Among fully vaccinated participants, overall duration of culture positivity was shorter among Moderna vaccine recipients versus Pfizer (p=0.048) or Janssen (p=0.003) vaccine recipients.  

 

Conclusions 

As this field continues to develop, clinicians and public health practitioners should consider vaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 to be no less infectious than unvaccinated persons. These findings are critically important, especially in congregate settings where viral transmission can lead to large outbreaks.

 

COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified [Correspondence published in The Lancet, November 2021]

Title of Correspondence: 

COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified

 

Author:

Günter Kampf 

 

Published:

The Lancet, Volume 398, Issue 10314, P1871, 20 November 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1 

 

From the correspondence:

In the USA and Germany, high-level officials have used the term pandemic of the unvaccinated, suggesting that people who have been vaccinated are not relevant in the epidemiology of COVID-19. Officials’ use of this phrase might have encouraged one scientist to claim that “the unvaccinated threaten the vaccinated for COVID-19”.1 But this view is far too simple.