Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the Covid-19 pandemic 2020-2021 [Preprint - medRxiv, May 2022]

Title:

Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the Covid-19 pandemic 2020-2021

 

Authors:

Kasper P. Kepp, Jonas Björk, Kristoffer T. Bæk & Tea Lallukka

 

Published:

medRxiv, 7 May 2022

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.07.22274789v1

 

Abstract:

Excess deaths during the covid-19 pandemic are of major scientific and political interest. Here we review excess all-cause death estimates from different methods for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), which have been much studied during the covid-19 pandemic. In the comparison of the methods, we use simple sensitivity estimates and linear interpolations of the death data to discuss uncertainties and implications for reporting ratios and infection fatality rates. We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that a recent study in Lancet, which is a clear outlier in the overviewed estimates, most likely substantially overestimates excess deaths of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. The other estimates are more consistent and suggest a range of total Nordic excess deaths of approximately half of that in the Lancet study, a more uniform ability to identify covid-19-related deaths, and more similar infection fatality rates for the Nordic countries.

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), USA (2021) - The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality

Title:

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality

 

Authors:

Virat Agrawal, USC Sol Price School of Public Polict, USA

Jonathan H Cantor, RAND Corporation, USA

Neeraj Sood, Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics Sol Price School of Public Policy, USA

Chritopher M Whaley, RAND Corporation, USA

 

Published:

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), USA, June 2021

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28930/w28930.pdf

[NBER Working Paper Series]

 

Abstract:

As a way of slowing COVID-19 transmission, many countries and U.S. states implemented shelter-in-place (SIP) policies. However, the effects of SIP policies on public health are a priori ambiguous as they might have unintended adverse effects on health. The effect of SIP policies on COVID-19 transmission and physical mobility is mixed. To understand the net effects of SIP policies, we measure the change in excess deaths following the implementation of SIP policies in 43 countries and all U.S. states. We use an event study framework to quantify changes in the number of excess deaths after the implementation of a SIP policy. We find that following the implementation of SIP policies, excess mortality increases. The increase in excess mortality is statistically significant in the immediate weeks following SIP implementation for the international comparison only and occurs despite the fact that there was a decline in the number of excess deaths prior to the implementation of the policy. At the U.S. state-level, excess mortality increases in the immediate weeks following SIP introduction and then trends below zero following 20 weeks of SIP implementation. We failed to find that countries or U.S. states that implemented SIP policies earlier, and in which SIP policies had longer to operate, had lower excess deaths than countries/U.S. states that were slower to implement SIP policies. We also failed to observe differences in excess death trends before and after the implementation of SIP policies based on pre-SIP COVID-19 death rates.

 

SOUTH AFRICA - ‘Hello, my name is South Africa… we have a collective drinking problem’: Alcohol bans had more impact than curfews, study finds [Daily Maverick, July 2021]

Title:

‘Hello, my name is South Africa… we have a collective drinking problem’: Alcohol bans had more impact than curfews, study finds

 

Author:

Adele Baleta

 

Published:

Daily Maverick, 5 July 2021

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-05-hello-my-name-is-south-africa-we-have-a-collective-drinking-problem-alcohol-bans-had-more-impact-than-curfews-study-finds/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

 

From the article:

New research published in the South African Medical Journal has found compelling evidence that a blanket ban on alcohol reduces the number of unnatural deaths related to trauma injuries, while curfews have less of an impact. Adele Baleta spoke to lead author, Prof Tom Moultrie.

 

Note from blog owner:

Prof Tom Moultrie is the lead author of above-mentioned research and director of the University of Cape Town's Centre for Actuarial Research.