National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), USA (2021) - The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality

Title:

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality

 

Authors:

Virat Agrawal, USC Sol Price School of Public Polict, USA

Jonathan H Cantor, RAND Corporation, USA

Neeraj Sood, Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics Sol Price School of Public Policy, USA

Chritopher M Whaley, RAND Corporation, USA

 

Published:

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), USA, June 2021

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28930/w28930.pdf

[NBER Working Paper Series]

 

Abstract:

As a way of slowing COVID-19 transmission, many countries and U.S. states implemented shelter-in-place (SIP) policies. However, the effects of SIP policies on public health are a priori ambiguous as they might have unintended adverse effects on health. The effect of SIP policies on COVID-19 transmission and physical mobility is mixed. To understand the net effects of SIP policies, we measure the change in excess deaths following the implementation of SIP policies in 43 countries and all U.S. states. We use an event study framework to quantify changes in the number of excess deaths after the implementation of a SIP policy. We find that following the implementation of SIP policies, excess mortality increases. The increase in excess mortality is statistically significant in the immediate weeks following SIP implementation for the international comparison only and occurs despite the fact that there was a decline in the number of excess deaths prior to the implementation of the policy. At the U.S. state-level, excess mortality increases in the immediate weeks following SIP introduction and then trends below zero following 20 weeks of SIP implementation. We failed to find that countries or U.S. states that implemented SIP policies earlier, and in which SIP policies had longer to operate, had lower excess deaths than countries/U.S. states that were slower to implement SIP policies. We also failed to observe differences in excess death trends before and after the implementation of SIP policies based on pre-SIP COVID-19 death rates.

 

Asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 [Scholarly Article - BMJ, 21 December 2020]

Title:

Asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19

 

Authors:

Allyson M Pollock, Professor of Public Health

James Lancaster, Independent Researcher

Published:

BMJ, 2020; 371 (published 21 December 2020)

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851

From the article:

Unusually in disease management, a positive test result is the sole criterion for a covid-19 case. Normally, a test is a support for clinical diagnosis, not a substitute. This lack of clinical oversight means we know very little about the proportions of people with positive results who are truly asymptomatic throughout the course of their infection and the proportions who are paucisymptomatic (subclinical), presymptomatic (go on to develop symptoms later), or post-infection (with viral RNA fragments still detectable from an earlier infection).

Factors influencing intention to adhere to precautionary behavior in times of COVID- 19 pandemic in Sudan: an application of the Health Belief Model [Preprint - medRxiv, 31 December 2020]

Title:

Factors influencing intention to adhere to precautionary behavior in times of COVID- 19 pandemic in Sudan: an application of the Health Belief Model 

 

Authors:

Azzaa A Mehanna, Health Administration and behavioral Sciences Department, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt

Yasir Ahmed Mohammed Elhadi, Health Administration and behavioral Sciences Department, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt

Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno III, Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Published:

medRxiv, 31 December 2020

[This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review.]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.25.20248859v1

Abstract:

Background Corona virus disease (covid-19) is an emerging highly infectious disease caused by novel corona virus (SARS-CoV-2). Several public health and social protective measures that may prevent or slow down the transmission of the COVID-19 were introduced. However, these measures are unfortunately neglected or deliberately ignored by some individuals. 

 

Objective To identify the factors influencing intention to adhere to precautionary measures against COVID-19 in Sudan. 

 

Methods and Design Cross sectional online based survey using virtual convenience sampling technique. Variables Measured Perceived threat of corona virus (perceived severity and perceived susceptibility), perceived benefits, perceived barriers, self-efficacy and intention to adhere to precautionary behavior towards COVID-19 

 

Results The significant predictors of intention to adhere to the precautionary behavior against COVID-19 were: gender (β =3.34, P <0.001), self-efficacy (β= 0.476, P<0.001), perceived benefits (β= 0.349, P<0.001) and perceived severity (β= 0.113, P=0.005). These factors explained 43% of the variance in participants intention to adhere to the protective measures. Participants who were female, confident in their ability to adhere to the protective measures when available, believing in the benefits of the protective measures against COVID-19 and perceiving that the disease could have serious consequences were more likely to be willing to adhere to the protective measures. 

 

Conclusion Health Belief model is a useful framework for addressing factors influencing intention to adhere to precautionary behavior during COVID pandemic.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - MIT researchers say their AI model can identify asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers

Title:

MIT researchers say their AI model can identify asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers

 

Author:

Kyle Wiggers

 

Published:

Venture Beat, 29 October 2020

https://venturebeat.com/2020/10/29/mit-researchers-say-their-ai-model-can-identify-asymptomatic-covid-19-carriers/

 

From the article:

Researchers at MIT say they’ve developed an algorithm that can diagnose COVID-19 by the sound of someone’s cough, even if that person is asymptomatic. In a paper published in the IEEE Journal of Engineering in Medicine and Biology, the team reports that their approach distinguishes between infected and healthy individuals through “forced-cough” recordings contributed via smartphones, laptops, and other mobile devices.

medRxiv, 7 September 2020 (preprint) - The timing of COVID-19 transmission

Title:
The timing of COVID-19 transmission

Authors:
Luca Ferretti, Alice Ledda, Chris Wymant, Lele Zhao, Virginia Ledda, Lucie Abeler- Dorner, Michelle Kendall, Anel Nurtay, Hao-Yuan Cheng, Ta-Chou Ng, Hsien-Ho Lin, Rob Hinch, Joanna Masel, A. Marm Kilpatrick & Christophe Fraser

Published:
medRxiv, 7 September 2020
[Keep in mind that this article is a preprint and not yet peer reviewed.]
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.04.20188516v1

Abstract:
The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is more strongly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection. We found that it was approximately centered and symmetric around the onset of symptoms, with three quarters of events occurring in the window from 2-3 days before to 2-3 days after. However, we caution against overinterpretation of the right tail of the distribution, due to its dependence on behavioural factors and interventions. We also found that the pre-symptomatic infectious period extended further back in time for individuals with longer incubation periods. This strongly suggests that information about when a case was infected should be collected where possible, in order to assess how far into the past their contacts should be traced. Overall, the fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections was high (41%; 95%CI 31-50%), which limits the efficacy of symptom-based interventions, and the large fraction of transmissions (35%; 95%CI 26-45%) that occur on the same day or the day after onset of symptoms underlines the critical importance of individuals distancing themselves from others as soon as they notice any symptoms, even if they are mild. Rapid or at-home testing and contextual risk information would greatly facilitate efficient early isolation.

World Health Organization - WHO says COVID-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal

Title:
WHO says COVID-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal

Published:
WKZO, 28 July 2020 
https://wkzo.com/news/articles/2020/jul/28/who-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal/1043747/

From the article:
The World Health Organization on Tuesday warned against complacency about new coronavirus transmission in the northern hemisphere summer, saying that this virus did not behave like influenza that tended to follow seasonal trends.

COVID-19's silent spread - A UF/EPI professor helped develop a model that estimates slightly more than half of COVID-19 transmission is due to people with no symptoms. A third or more of these cases would need to be isolated, in addition to most symptomatic cases, to quell the pandemic

Title:
COVID-19's silent spread

Author:
Delene Beeland, University of Florida

Published:
Medical Xpress, 14 July 2020
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-silent.html

From the article:
A UF/EPI professor helped develop a model that estimates slightly more than half of COVID-19 transmission is due to people with no symptoms. A third or more of these cases would need to be isolated, in addition to most symptomatic cases, to quell the pandemic.

More than half of COVID-19 transmission is driven by people who show no symptoms, according to new research published on July 6 the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings could directly influence the design of test-and-trace containment policies that aim to lower the rising numbers of infections in the United States.

More than 200 scientists dispute WHO theory on Covid-19 transmission - Covid-19 can be spread by aerosol

Title:
More than 200 scientists dispute WHO theory on Covid-19 transmission

Published:
The Brussels Times, 6 July 2020
https://www.brusselstimes.com/news-contents/world/120072/more-than-200-scientists-dispute-who-theory-on-covid-19-transmission/

From the article:
More than 230 scientists from 32 different countries have signed an open letter to the World Health Organisation (WHO) disputing the official view on how the coronavirus Covid-19 can be spread by aerosol.