medRxiv, 28 May 2020 - Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 first epidemic wave in Greece: social contact patterns and impact assessment of social distancing interventions

Title:
Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 first epidemic wave in Greece: social contact patterns and impact assessment of social distancing interventions

Authors:
Vana Sypsa, Sotirios Roussos, Dimitrios Paraskevis, Theodore Lytras, Sotirios Tsiodras & Angelos Hatzakis

Published:
medRxiv, 28 May 2020
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114017v1
[Keep in mind that this article is a prepring. In other words, it has not been peer reviewed.]

Abstract:
"In Greece, a nationwide lockdown to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was imposed on March 23, 2020. As by the end of April the first epidemic wave is waning, it is important to assess the infection attack rate and quantify the impact of physical distancing. We implemented a survey to assess social mixing patterns before the epidemic and during lockdown. We estimated R0 from surveillance data and assessed its decline as a result of physical distancing based on social contacts data. We applied a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model to estimate the infection attack rate and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). As multiple social distancing measures were implemented simultaneously (schools/work/leisure), we assessed their overall impact as well as their relative contribution. R0 was estimated 2.38 (95%CI: 2.01,2.80). By April 26th, the infection attack rate was 0.12% (95% CrI: 0.06%,0.26%) and the IFR 1.12% (95% CrI: 0.55%,2.31%). During lockdown, daily contacts were reduced by 86.9% and the effective reproduction number reached 0.46 (95% CrI: 0.35,0.57). The reduction in R0 attributed to lockdown was 81.0% (95% CrI: 71.8%,86.0%) whereas the reduction attributed to each measure separately ranged between 10%-24%. We assessed scenarios with less disruptive social distancing measures as well as scenarios where measures are partially lifted after lockdown. This is the first impact assessment of the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in a European country. It suggests that only multiple measures implemented simultaneously could reduce R0 below 1. Measuring social mixing patterns can be a tool for real-time monitoring of the epidemic potential."

Scholarly Article (13 May 2020) - An outbreak of severe Kawasaki-like disease at the Italian epicentre of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: an observational cohort study

Title:
An outbreak of severe Kawasaki-like disease at the Italian epicentre of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: an observational cohort study

Authors:
Lucio Verdoni, MD; Angelo Mazza, MD; Annalisa Gervasoni, MD; Laura Martelli, MD; Maurizio Ruggeri, MD; Matteo Ciuffreda, MD; Ezio Bonanomi, MD & Lorenzo D'Antiga, MD 

Published:
Lancet, 13 May 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31103-X/fulltext

Background:
"The Bergamo province, which is extensively affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, is a natural observatory of virus manifestations in the general population. In the past month we recorded an outbreak of Kawasaki disease; we aimed to evaluate incidence and features of patients with Kawasaki-like disease diagnosed during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic."