Title:
No evidence of association between schools and SARS-CoV-2 second wave in Italy
Authors:
Sara Gandini, Maurizio Rainisio, Maria Luisa Iannuzzo, Federica Bellerba, Francesco Cecconi & Luca Scorrano
Published:
medRxiv, 18 December 2020
[Keep in mind that this is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review.]
Abstract:
During Covid-19 pandemic, school closure has been mandated in analogy to its known effect against influenza, but it is unclear whether schools are early amplifiers of Covid19 cases. By analyzing the case scenario of school reopening across the twenty-one Italian regions, we did not find evidence that schools drove the second SARS-CoV-2 wave. Indeed, from September 12 to November 7 2020, SARS-CoV-2 incidence among students was lower than that in the general population of all but two Italian regions. From August 28 to October 25 in Veneto where school reopened on September 14, the growth of SARS-CoV-2 incidence measured across all age groups was lower in school age individuals, maximal in 20-29 and 45-49 years old individuals. Moreover, the increase in Covid19 reproduction number Rt was not associated with the different school opening dates. Reciprocally, school closures in two regions where they were implemented before other measures did not affect the rate of Rt decline. In schools, despite the high frequency of tests per week, secondary infections were <1%, and clusters in a representative November week infrequent. Thus, our prospective analysis does not support a role for school reopening as a driver of the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Italy.